Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 21.273822 23.099081 25.067092 27.356792 29.960264 32.843555 36.299296
2025-11-09 18.341036 20.834585 23.708634 27.305818 31.744827 37.121586 44.251770
2025-11-16 16.245028 19.096456 22.556911 27.149984 33.221100 41.178713 52.776464
2025-11-23 14.698073 17.752687 21.616614 27.001293 34.552201 45.176199 62.108441
2025-11-30 13.486442 16.652550 20.796714 26.815037 35.701468 49.034255 72.174575
2025-12-07 12.579581 15.831930 20.218064 26.827086 37.059919 53.381358 84.227717
2025-12-14 11.791898 15.082146 19.634127 26.717157 38.158989 57.469393 97.101921
2025-12-21 11.399676 14.832484 19.713364 27.579603 40.904510 64.912962 119.396910
2025-12-28 10.759459 14.170566 19.116329 27.293335 41.642768 68.829128 135.743568
2026-01-04 10.259641 13.670533 18.710171 27.253383 42.783645 73.764143 156.976563
2026-01-11 9.883497 13.322528 18.500525 27.503838 44.478769 80.252893 186.225987
2026-01-18 9.434495 12.832557 18.025204 27.237988 45.128700 84.595791 211.972980
2026-01-25 9.018492 12.377776 17.588088 27.023636 45.914627 89.655608 244.969234
2026-02-01 8.672676 12.011763 17.269408 26.992895 47.089822 96.101241 290.020253
2026-02-08 8.334881 11.638063 16.910130 26.848395 48.002490 102.199204 341.371101
2026-02-15 8.025743 11.291815 16.571422 26.706052 48.898756 108.600620 404.166133
2026-02-22 7.734891 10.958611 16.231193 26.524517 49.676479 114.975501 479.023399
2026-03-01 7.498019 10.700083 16.001679 26.537202 50.922329 123.367206 587.977103
2026-03-08 7.259649 10.426405 15.726838 26.429351 51.855535 131.156745 717.087631
2026-03-15 7.179628 10.410533 15.907350 27.278535 55.405309 150.228096 1051.744527
2026-03-22 6.943152 10.119273 15.570523 26.996827 55.897004 157.755102 1295.522128
2026-03-29 6.755077 9.901518 15.355165 26.957535 57.060456 168.837970 1707.549093
2026-04-05 6.615975 9.760887 15.273509 27.204093 59.096612 185.223795 2501.746931